Strait of Hormuz Closure: The 5 Realistic Alternative Shipping Routes

If the Strait of Hormuz closes — even partially — exporters out of Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Kuwait, Qatar, Iraq, Bahrain and Iran lose their only direct sea outlet for ~20 mb/d of crude. Here are the five real bypasses that exist today, what they can actually carry, and where they fail.

1. Saudi East-West Pipeline (Petroline) — 5.0 mb/d

• Origin: Abqaiq → Yanbu on the Red Sea.
• Capacity: 5.0 mb/d after the 2024 expansion, of which ~2.5 mb/d is already used routinely.
• Spare today: ~2.5 mb/d.
• Risk: Yanbu loadings face Houthi missile / USV threat in the Red Sea — the very chokepoint Hormuz traffic would be fleeing.

2. UAE Habshan–Fujairah Pipeline (ADCOP) — 1.5 mb/d

• Origin: Habshan → Fujairah, outside the Strait.
• Capacity: Nameplate 1.8 mb/d, sustainable 1.5 mb/d.
• Spare today: ~0.5 mb/d.
• Risk: Fujairah anchorage itself has been attacked (2019, 2024) — not immune to limpet mines or USV swarms.

3. Iraq–Turkey Pipeline (ITP / Kirkuk–Ceyhan) — currently 0 mb/d

• Capacity: 1.6 mb/d nameplate.
• Status: Shut since March 2023 (Paris arbitration award).
• If reopened: would relieve only Iraqi northern crude — Basra Light has no northern pipeline option.

4. Iran Goreh–Jask pipeline — 0.3 mb/d

• Origin: Goreh → Jask on the Gulf of Oman.
• Capacity: Designed for 1.0 mb/d, operating around 0.3 mb/d in 2026.
• Risk: Iranian asset — useless to anyone trying to escape Iranian action.

5. The fleet-level workaround: dark-fleet ship-to-ship transfers

When a tanker reaches the Gulf of Oman, it conducts STS transfers off Khor Fakkan or Sohar with a "clean" hull that then sails to Asia. Hormuz Crisis Tracker monitors STS pairings via Sentinel-1 SAR and reports them in the live map.

Sum of realistic spare bypass capacity: ~3.0 mb/d

Versus 20 mb/d that normally transits Hormuz. The math: bypasses cover at best 15% of demand. Everything else has to come from:

• US SPR (~700 mb total, ~3 mb/d for 60 days).
• Demand destruction at the price (Brent $148–$162 in the bear scenario, see our oil price forecast).
• Drawdown of commercial inventories (~30 days of cover globally).

What about LNG?

Qatar exports 77 mt/y of LNG entirely through Hormuz. There is no pipeline bypass for Qatari LNG. A closure would re-route global LNG flows toward US, Australian and Russian cargoes, with European TTF spiking 50–80% within a week — see our jet fuel and inflation analysis.

Sources: Saudi Aramco · ADNOC · EIA International Energy Statistics · Argus Media · S&P Platts.

FAQ

Could the world replace all Hormuz oil? No. Existing bypass pipelines cover ~15% of normal Hormuz volumes. The rest depends on SPR releases and demand destruction at higher prices.

What about LNG from Qatar? There is no pipeline bypass for Qatari LNG. A Hormuz closure would force Europe and Asia onto US, Australian and Russian LNG, with prices likely spiking 50–80%.

How fast can Saudi Arabia ramp the East-West Pipeline? Spare capacity of ~2.5 mb/d can be brought online within 7–14 days, but Red Sea (Yanbu) loadings face their own Houthi threat.

Is the Goreh–Jask pipeline a useful Iranian bypass? Operationally yes — ~0.3 mb/d today, 1.0 mb/d designed — but it's an Iranian asset and offers no relief for non-Iranian exporters.

Methodology & sources

Capacity figures cross-checked against company filings (Aramco, ADNOC, NIOC) and EIA International Energy Statistics, May 2026 vintage. Last reviewed 2026-05-16.